The largest product category, optoelectronics, is expected to suffer its first sales decline in 13 years on a smartphone slump, slow camera growth in handsets and a sluggish global economy, the update report said.
Over the past two decades, strong growth in CMOS image sensors has propelled this product category to the top of the optoelectronics market in terms of sales volume, accounting for over 40% of total annual optosemiconductor sales. In 2022, however, the CMOS image sensor market category is on track to suffer its first decline in 13 years, with revenue forecast to fall 7% to $18.6 billion and unit count to fall 11% to 6.1 Billions will fall worldwide, according to IC Insights. August 3Q update from The McClean report service (Figure 1).
The 2022 forecast decline in CMOS image sensors comes after two years of meager sales growth in 2020 (+4%) and 2021 (+5%). This year’s decline in sales reflects the general weakness in consumer smartphones and portable computers with digital cameras for video conferencing after increased demand for internet connectivity and online conferencing capabilities during the Covid-19 virus pandemic. That 3Q update The forecast shows a modest recovery in CMOS image sensors over the next year, with market revenue growing 4% to $19.3 billion and then 13% in 2024 to a new record high of $21.7 billion .
In addition to weak demand for mainstream cameraphones and handheld computers, CMOS image sensors have been negatively impacted by deteriorating global economic conditions, driven by high inflation and rising energy costs driven by the Russian war in Ukraine and US trade bans on China were caused. the recent Covid-19 virus lockdowns in Chinese manufacturing centers and the slowing growth in the number of cameras being packed into new smartphones. Some high-end smartphone models include five or more cameras, but the average for most phones has remained at three (one on the front, facing the user for “selfie” photos, and two main cameras on the back of the phone phone). IC Insights 3Q update report says some executives in China have described the image sensor market conditions as a “perfect storm” combining a slowdown in shipments of mainstream mid-range smartphones and an unexpected pause in the rise of embedded cameras being developed in new handsets.
CMOS image sensor market leader Sony – which accounted for about 43% of global CMOS image sensor sales in 2021 – reported a 12 sequential decline in image sensor sales in dollar terms (-2% in Japanese yen) in the company’s FY1Q23 .4%. ended in June 2022. In the first half of calendar year 2022, Sony struggled to meet image resolution requirements for camera phones and sales of CMOS image sensors to leading Chinese system manufacturers were reduced by US trade bans. Sony still expects excess inventory of phones and image sensors to be reduced by early 2023 and market conditions to “normalize” in the second half of the current fiscal year (ending next March).
Almost two-thirds of CMOS image sensors are used in mobile phones, and this share is expected to drop to around 45% by 2026 The 3Q update of the McClean report. A slow but steady recovery in CMOS image sensors is predicted to be driven by a new upgrade buying cycle of smartphones and more embedded cameras being added in other systems, particularly for automotive automation functions, medical applications and smart security networks. That 3Q update shows that CMOS image sensor sales will grow at a CAGR of 6.0% between 2021 and 2026, reaching US$26.9 billion in the last year of the forecast. CMOS image sensor shipments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.9% to 9.6 million units between 2021 and 2026.